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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, U.S. representatives are expected to present the terms to the Kremlin.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials indicated on Monday that approximately “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, leading to high-level meetings possibly this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and International Support

“The plan involves five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to journalists. He stated that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia sought to capture additional territory after a peace deal. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. does not intend to place boots on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the rebuilding of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting safer seas, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to accepting the type of package under discussion between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Russian government said it had not received the details of the plans for security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergei Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from Nato countries being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators continues to be the issue of land. One proposal centers on Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine withdraw, but Russia would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Russia has indicated it could use internal security units rather than the army in such an area, implying it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘special economic zone’ is not controlled by Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise the Donbas region – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a compromise solution like a free economic zone could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is willing to compromise on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if they reject the deal. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.