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PHEVs emit nearly five times more global warming emissions than official data indicate, as per a new analysis.

Widening Discrepancy Between Official and Real-World CO2 Output

Data shows that PHEVs release only 19% less CO₂ than conventional gas and diesel cars, according to research conducted by a advocacy organization. That differs sharply with lab estimates, which suggested a three-quarters decrease in pollution.

Researchers examined information from onboard fuel consumption monitors of 800,000 vehicles registered in Europe between 2021 and 2023. They discovered that actual CO₂ output from PHEVs in 2023 were 4.9 times greater than official estimates, up from 3.5 times in 2021.

“Real-world CO2 output are rising, while lab-reported figures are decreasing,” said a lead analyst involved in the study. “This discrepancy is growing and poses a serious issue. As a result, PHEVs pollute nearly as heavily as gasoline cars.”

Primary Reasons Behind the Emissions Gap

Researchers linked the majority of the difference to overestimates of the “utility factor” – the percentage of miles driven in electric power compared to total distance. They determined that just 27% of driving was completed in electric mode, while lab assumptions suggested over four-fifths.

Even, when operating in electric mode, emission amounts were well above lab projections. This happened because electric motors were insufficiently powerful enough to function independently, leading to combustion motors using fossil fuels for almost one-third of the distance completed in EV mode.

Regulatory and Economic Implications

According to calculations, the lowballing of PHEV CO2 output enabled several large carmaker companies to escape over €5bn in penalties between 2021 and 2023, by artificially easing compliance with European Union average fleet CO₂ targets.

Additionally, owners of PHEVs would spend about €500 extra per year in operating costs than would be assumed under lab tests.

“The strong claims that automakers like to make about their plug-in hybrid cars are obviously way off the mark,” stated a transport analyst. “Consumers are being misled into thinking that by buying a PHEV, they are helping the planet and cutting costs. In reality, PHEVs are only slightly better than regular gas and diesel vehicles in terms of energy consumption, CO₂ emissions, and running expenses.”

Policy Discussion and Industry Lobbying

Hybrid vehicles have lately been drawn back into political discussions as automakers have lobbied the EU to relax CO₂ standards. A planned prohibition on sales of new combustion engine cars in 2035 has faced heavy lobbying from the car industry and resistance from member states with significant automotive industries.

Some high-level politicians have proposed plug-in hybrids as a possible “flexibility” solution to introduce in the regulation.

One external energy policy specialist, who was unaffiliated with the study, called the report a “very useful contribution” after a long period in which segments of the car industry argued there was too little information to properly assess real-world emissions.

“These findings show, without question, that the gap in lab and real-world PHEV fuel consumption and CO₂ output is significantly greater than for petrol or diesel vehicles,” they said. “Any policy changes concerning PHEVs should be made with utmost caution and in the light of that evidence.”