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"I'll be sitting in the same position by 2027," Sir Keir Starmer stated, joking that if the conversation was successful, he might invite us into Number 10 for another chat in 2026.

There is never any time off for prime ministers. In the hour before our chat started, the PM had been on the phone with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and working to work out exactly what had occurred in Venezuela, where his big ally, US President Donald Trump, had just launched a strike against and detained its leader, Nicolás Maduro.

By the time our lengthy talk, which was much longer than normal, had finished, Maduro had been charged in New York.

A Refresh for the New Year

As the year starts, Starmer seems to have had something of a refresh. Maybe even just a little a rest with his family at Chequers, the prime minister's official country residence.

This seemed to have put him in better spirits than at the sluggish tail end of 2025, a terrible year politically for him.

Yet, are he and his supporters deluding themselves if they believe his standing are set to turn around?

Party Concerns

The grisly truth for the PM is that numerous of his colleagues believe he's underperforming at his job. Several of them would sooner gamble and oust him sooner rather than later.

But Starmer was rejecting the idea when we spoke on Saturday morning.

On several occasions he stated he'd be "judged at the general election", arguing no one would strip his term from him – despite the fact that the best chance of halting Nigel Farage and Reform UK reaching No 10 might be for Labour to change its leader.

"This is the fight of our times and I plan to lead us," he declared.

The Spring Test

The issue for the prime minister is that he will be scrutinised long before then – in a mega set of elections in May throughout the UK. He tried to protest, maybe too much, that they are about who runs councils, and who runs the governments in Holyrood or Cardiff – and not about Westminster.

True – in part. But although he may be reluctant to concede it, No 10 will be judged by those elections too.

Despite this, Sir Keir implying that there were no circumstances under which he would resign, should a his colleagues contested his leadership for the job, if those elections be catastrophic for Labour.

Predicting a Turnaround

He sought to account for his low poll ratings by saying the electorate was reasonably eager for things to improve. He tried to persuade the interviewer, and the nation, that the coming months would be a change.

The economic situation would improve despite rising unemployment, he claimed, when strategies the government put in place during their initial rocky year began to bear fruit.

• He committed to shut asylum hotels before the current deadline of 2029, although he did not set a firm date on that.
• He noted too, with the qualification that it wasn't a foregone conclusion, that a peace deal in Ukraine felt a greater possibility now than at any time since Russia's full-scale invasion.
• He stated for the first time that Western partners were now discussing how to integrate US and European forces to ensure security for Ukraine – to guard a possible peace.

His big message is that soon the country will "turn the corner".

Familiar Arguments

The PM may have communicated with renewed vitality than observed from him for a some time – calmer, perhaps, with more time to talk.

However, in spite of encountering calls from within his own party for a bolder approach, with increased political vision, more vigour, more speed and more immediacy, his explanations were repeated ones.

Given that he is in considerable political peril, is a different approach required a change of tack?

No government, and especially not one that has been unpopular for many months, gets everything its as desired.

The Prime Minister's challenges are not just because government is hard, but because he and his colleagues have faltered, including in the recent past.

Regrets and Risks

The prime minister admitted that he regretted saying he was "happy" to welcome back the Egyptian-British activist Alaa Abd El Fattah to the UK following an outcry when past remarks he'd previously made – such as calls for Zionists and police to be killed – came to light.

Starmer attributed it to "procedures" for not catching what the activist had said before – a fancier way of saying it wasn't his responsibility.

And he is inviting clear political risks as the year progresses. His friendship with the US president takes on a new jeopardy after Trump's military action on Venezuela.

Based on years of interviewing Sir Keir Starmer, a former human rights lawyer who opposed the war in Iraq, over many years, the thought he would be comfortable with such action seems unlikely.

Policy Stances and Pressures

He asserted he was a "longtime champion of international law" but we "simply lack the complete details at the moment".

Opponents called for him to criticise the action before we spoke. And the administration is expected to face more pressure to give an explicit view in Parliament in the next few days.

There has also long been bubbling desire in the Labour party to revisit some of the outcomes of Brexit.

The PM disputes he's heading in that direction, but his new firmer commitment to align more closely with the European trading bloc – the giant economic European trading zone – will probably provoke howls that he is breaking his pledge never to try to undo the results that stemmed from Brexit.

A move to integrate into more of the single market will please a faction on his side of the party, but it is simple material for Reform and the Conservatives to